Krungthai Compass, a division of Krungthai Bank, anticipates Thailand could achieve 2.5% GDP growth on the proviso that restrictions to contain Covid throughout January and February remain robust and effective.
The bank projects four scenarios for GDP growth in 2021, dependent largely on the timeframe for Covid restrictions and Government aid.
In the first scenario forecast by the bank, the government would maintain existing measures to contain the COVID-19 outbreak from January to February, which together with forecast Government aid largesse would likely achieve the 2.5% figure. Without an anticipated Government aid package, that figure would fall to 1.5%.
In a a second scenario, it was cautioned that should containment measures last until the end of March, GDP growth will be adjusted to an expected 2%. Without the Government aid spending, just 1% GDP growth is predicted.
With a large services sector, and with inbound Tourism (responsible for almost 18% of Thailands GDP between 2017 to 2019) at a complete standstill, the eradication of Covid locally and global distribution of vaccines is vital for the rejuvenation of the countries economy.
