Thailand Rushes Trade Concessions to Ward Off US Tariffs
BANGKOK, July 16 – Thailand is racing to finalise trade concessions with the United States in hopes of averting a 36% tariff due to take effect on August 1, a move that could seriously dent its export-reliant economy.
Government officials are set to submit a revised proposal before the July 9 deadline under the Trump-era “reciprocal” tariff framework, aiming to negotiate duties down to between 10% and 20%. Finance Minister Predee Daochai expressed confidence that the full tariff could be avoided.
Still, exporters face significant pressure. The Federation of Thai Industries estimates the tariffs could reduce exports by between ฿800 and 900 billion (US $24.5–27.6 billion) if fully implemented. In response, the Bank of Thailand has downgraded its export forecast, now expecting a 4% contraction in the second half of 2025, and adjusted its full-year GDP growth forecast down to 2.3%.
With limited room for monetary stimulus, Thai policymakers are turning to targeted measures, including digital wallet payouts and sector-specific credit programs. Internationally, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on Southeast Asian countries to strike better trade terms as regional tariffs tighten.
For Thai exporters, particularly in agriculture, electronics, and auto parts, the margin for error is narrowing. The coming weeks may prove decisive.
Sources:
- Reuters, “Thailand offers U.S. more trade concessions to avert 36% tariff,” July 2025
- Bloomberg, “Thai industries warn of $27 billion export hit,” July 2025
- The Guardian, “Rubio seeks to reassure Southeast Asia as Trump tariffs loom,” July 2025
- U.S. News Money, “Thailand braces for U.S. tariff fallout,” July 2025